Shrimp Market Outlook 2026: Key Shifts in Supply, Trade, and Global Demand

As part of Bluepacif’s global market insights, we present a concise overview of the major trends shaping the shrimp industry as we move into 2026. With changing trade policies, evolving consumer preferences, and shifting production patterns, the year ahead is expected to bring a mix of challenges and opportunities for the sector.

Ecuador Keeps Expanding Its Global Footprint

Ecuador is positioned for continued export growth following strong production levels in 2025. Despite cooler temperatures late in the year affecting harvests, total output remains solid. From January to October, exports rose over 15%, with China, the US, and Europe remaining the top destinations.

Demand from China is expected to strengthen thanks to government-driven stimulus efforts. Europe, however, is working through high inventory levels, limiting near-term price increases. In the US, tariff-related uncertainty continues as Washington and Quito negotiate adjustments to trade rules, though timelines remain unclear.

India Faces Tariff Pressure and Turns to New Markets

India enters 2026 under the weight of elevated US tariffs, which have disrupted sales of peeled and value-added shrimp. While overall vannamei exports grew in 2025, exporters warn that a prolonged tariff dispute could put additional pressure on the sector.

As a result, Indian companies are focusing more on diversification, targeting markets such as the EU, China, Southeast Asia, and Russia. Production is still expected to grow in 2026, supported by recent improvements in farmgate prices and strong domestic farming activity.

US Importers Seek Alternatives as Tariffs Shift Buying Patterns

High tariffs on Indian shrimp have already pushed US buyers to seek alternative suppliers, with Ecuador gaining a noticeable share of demand. While some importers stocked up before tariff hikes, the market is still adjusting—especially for processed and peeled products, where India has traditionally dominated.

Replacing India in these segments will take time, as few other producing countries offer the same scale and processing capabilities.

Europe Reinforces Its Move Toward Value-Added Formats

Europe’s shrimp demand remains stable but continues to shift toward semi-processed and value-added products such as IQF, peeled, and easy-peel formats. This transition has bolstered Ecuador’s competitive position, as suppliers expand processing capacity to match European preferences.

However, the surge in imports seen in 2025 is unlikely to repeat unless cold storage clears faster than expected. Prices entering 2026 are expected to remain relatively steady due to balanced supply and consistent consumption trends.

The shrimp industry enters 2026 in a period of transition. Ecuador is strengthening its position, India is redefining its market strategy, and major buyers—especially in the US and EU—continue to adjust to shifting supply conditions and trade policies. Flexibility, diversification, and value-added capabilities will be key themes shaping the year ahead.